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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the greatest upset.

However the current field is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.

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